The chemical industry has once again experienced a “year of deficitâ€
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In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's petroleum and chemical industries have made considerable progress. The oil and chemical import and export trade has also made remarkable achievements. The export product structure has transitioned from a single resource-intensive model to a comprehensive export product structure supplemented by resource-intensive and labor-intensive technologies. In 2007, China's chemical import and export trade totaled 319.79 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points over the same period of last year.
However, behind the rapid development, the deficit in the import and export trade of petroleum and chemicals in China still exists and continues to expand.
The deficit will only increase. The latest data provided by Feng Shiliang, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, shows that in 2007 China's chemical import and export trade has achieved a substantial increase, in which the increase in export trade is greater than the increase in import trade. The most obvious is the amount of pesticides, with a total volume of 477,000 tons of exports, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and an export value of 1.35 billion US dollars, an increase of 30% year-on-year.
A significant feature of the chemical import and export trade last year was trade. Increased quality of growth. This is mainly reflected in the fact that the export volume of products has dropped drastically, exports have risen sharply, and exports of products with high technological content and high added value have grown rapidly. Statistics show that annual exports of inorganic chemicals only increased by 6.1% year-on-year, but exports increased by 26.5%; exports of organic chemicals increased by 26.7% year-on-year, while exports increased by 34.6%. %. The export volume of specialty chemicals with high technological content and high added value increased by a large margin of 153.2%, reaching US$11.794 billion, accounting for 13.63% of the total chemical export trade volume, and the proportion rose rapidly. The increase in import of synthetic resin slowed further, to 5.4%, while the export growth rate reached 33.3%.
At the same time, the export of some high-energy-consuming products was initially contained. In 2007, the export volume of soda ash in China was 1.706 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; the export volume of solid caustic soda was 447,300 tons, an increase of 6% year-on-year, an increase of approximately 32 percentage points from the previous year; liquid caustic soda exports The volume was 1.027 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%, a sharp drop of 53% from the previous year; exports of dyes, pigments, etc. increased by 7.6%, a decrease of 10.1% from the previous year.
Last year, China's chemical import and export trade still had many remarkable points. As a result, the DAP products that were imported into the country each year were exported to 1.971 million tons in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 150.8%.
However, the export performance of China's petrochemical industry was unprecedentedly good. In 2007, the foreign trade deficit still showed an expanding trend. In 2007, China's chemical import and export trade totaled 319.79 billion U.S. dollars, of which import trade volume was 218.01 billion U.S. dollars, up 20.9 percent year-on-year, and export trade volume was 101.78 billion U.S. dollars, up 34.9% year-on-year. The trade deficit in the chemical industry continued to expand, reaching US$116.23 billion, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.
In this regard, Feng Shiliang made some explanations.
The most direct and most important reason for the widening of the deficit is the increase in crude oil imports. In addition, the domestic production of some organic chemical products and the three major synthetic materials cannot meet the market demand, and they still need to be imported to make up for the shortfall. In 2007, the crude oil trade deficit in China was 78.03 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 67.13% of the total industry trade deficit. In particular, oil prices in 2007 have been operating at a high level, and China’s imports of crude oil have reached new heights. This has caused the total trade deficit in China's petrochemical industry to expand.
In addition, the export of chemical products in China is still dominated by medium and low-grade products with low technological content and added value, and imports mainly consist of high-grade synthetic resins and synthetic fiber monomers. This is also one of the reasons for the chemical trade deficit.
From the perspective of economic globalization, China's long-term chemical trade deficit, but also because the chemical industry industry chain development is not balanced. Most of the major domestic product structures still remain in the general-purpose type and high energy consumption. The industry chain of the petroleum and chemical industries is prone to various uncertainties. Severe uneven distribution of crude oil resources and frequent fluctuations in oil prices also have a great impact on the upstream and downstream industries.
At the same time, activities in the international oil and chemical industries such as business exchange, sales, mergers and acquisitions, and divisions are frequent, and the result is an increase in the competitive advantage of foreign companies. In contrast, the competitiveness of Chinese chemical companies needs to be further improved.
The above reasons have caused the total trade deficit in China's petrochemical industry to continue to expand.
REACH Regulations Blocking Experts have cautioned that the REACH Regulation will have a major impact on China’s import and export of chemicals to Europe and related downstream products. In June 2007, due to the impact of the REACH regulations, the number of tire exports from Liaoning to the European Union dropped by as much as 44.49%. This is a corroboration. It is understood that the REACH Regulation will be formally implemented on June 1, 2008, and will start a six-month pre-registration involving chemical products and its downstream textile, light industry, electromechanical, pharmaceutical and other fields. It will become a potential influencing factor for China's oil and chemical industry trade deficit.
According to Yang Weicai, a specialist in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, according to the REACH Regulation, all chemical products that have been produced in the European Union or imported from the European Union more than 1 ton/year must be registered within 11 years after the commencement of the regulation. Products incorporated into this management system will not be able to be produced and sold within the EU. Once implemented, REACH regulations will involve more than 30,000 chemical products and 3 to 5 million applied chemicals. It can be said that all of our chemicals exported to the EU and chemical-related products will be affected more or less. Not only that. The European Union is an important source of petroleum and chemical products in China. In particular, some organic, inorganic, and synthetic chemical materials with high-tech and high added value are urgently needed in China. After the implementation of the REACH regulation, EU chemical producers or exporters may increase export prices. This will undoubtedly increase the cost of China's chemical import companies. After the increase in production costs, the profits of Chinese enterprises will be reduced, and the competitiveness of the products will also be weakened. Some small and medium-sized enterprises may even be closed down due to export obstruction. Therefore, after the implementation of the REACH Regulation, due to China's restrictions on the EU's chemical export trade, China's chemical trade deficit may further expand.
The core competitiveness is the key To improve the international competitiveness of China's chemical products and reduce the trade deficit, industry insiders suggest that they can start from the following aspects.
First, the development of deep-processing chemical products will reduce the export of resource-based products and primary chemical products. Domestically, we should vigorously develop emerging industries such as new types of coal chemical industry, biochemical industry, organic silicon, organic fluorine, and information chemicals, and promote the upgrading of the domestic petrochemical industry with emerging industries, so as to improve the quality and technological content of China's chemical exports as a whole. On this aspect, there have been good signs in 2007. It is understood that in 2007 the output value of new products across the industry increased by 50.7% over the previous year, and the contribution rate increased by 10.3% year-on-year.
Second, we should control the inadequacy of production capacity in certain industries in the industry. The example of yellow phosphorus products in previous years is a warning. In the past few years, the market for yellow phosphorus was promising, which led to the climax of the competition and expansion of Yunguichuan and Hubei. However, with the expansion of production capacity and the intensification of competition among enterprises, the price of yellow phosphorus has been declining all the way, causing the export price at that time to be only about half of that in the international market, causing great losses to the yellow phosphorus industry. In recent years, China's oil and chemical industry has seen rapid growth in fixed asset investment, with an annual growth rate of more than 30%, which is almost equivalent to recreating an oil and chemical industry every three years. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2007 has clearly stated that it is necessary to turn “two defenses†(preventing economic growth from overheating to overheating and preventing price from structural uplift to marked inflation) as the focus of this year's economic work and for the first time in ten years. It is proposed to implement a tight monetary policy. Therefore, the industry should take this opportunity to plan in an orderly manner to further realize the healthy and sustainable development of the petroleum and chemical industry.
Third, in order to reduce the chemical trade deficit, in addition to making efforts in product quality and industrial investment, many export companies in the industry need to raise awareness and strengthen their own strength. Domestic companies should align themselves with international large-scale chemical companies, implement the “go global†strategy, strive for more overseas investment projects, and strive to nurture themselves into large companies with international competitiveness.
In addition, companies must establish a reasonable upstream and downstream integrated operating structure. The degree of perfection of such a structure has a very important impact on reducing costs, spreading risks, and improving profitability.
At the same time, in order to avoid REACH regulations affecting China's chemical trade deficit, many domestic chemical export companies should actively respond and attach great importance to pre-registration. According to reports, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association is organizing EU and domestic experts to set up a REACH response agency in order to cope with the possible negative impact of the implementation of laws and regulations, and actively organize and assist domestic enterprises in pre-registration of petrochemical products to jointly cope with exports. risk.