PTA enters the era of "windfall"
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According to industry sources, compared with the lows of May last year, the price of upstream crude oil rose by only 20%, while the increase in PTA during the same period was as high as 70%. This will make the profits of PTA production companies exceptionally rich. Related listed companies such as S Yihua, S Shang Pei, Zhuhai Port and Rongsheng Petrochemical are expected to benefit.
Nearly 25% profit margin
“At this time last year, the cost of domestic PTA was about 7,000 yuan/ton, the price was about 8,000 yuan/ton, the profit margin was also about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the profit rate was about 10%. This is a high profit in the industry chain. But now, PTA prices have risen to around 11,850 yuan/ton, but the cost is only 9,500 yuan/ton, and the profit margin has widened to 2,350 yuan/ton, and the profit rate is close to 25%.†The reporter said.
Zhuo Feng, an analyst at Infotron, said that if the price of oil is calculated in full, the current price of PTA is theoretically only around 8,800 yuan/ton. If calculated in accordance with 8800 yuan / ton, PTA's profit margin will be as high as 34.6%!
It is reported that PX is mainly extracted from petroleum. However, in the past few months, the increase in international oil prices was far less than the price increase of PTA.
"Whether it is compared with crude oil or related chemical varieties, the increase in PTA is relatively large. From the perspective of oil prices, the current price of New York crude oil futures is still hovering between 85-90 US dollars / barrel, compared with the low of last year's May rise. Only 20%, while the same period the PTA rose as much as 70%." Quartz peak said.
In response, Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the China Chemical Network Information Center, told the reporter that PTA's raw material PX did not rise as much as PTA. This is the main background for PTA's profit surge. He believes that PTA companies have ushered in a rare era of "profiteering."
The price driving force originated from the Khmer price “The price driving force of PTA mainly comes from the Khmer price.†Shi Feng pointed out that as a direct substitute for cotton, polyester products downstream of PTA are directly driven by cotton prices, especially blended with cotton. Polyester short products. At present, Zheng cotton has returned to above 33,000 yuan. If the normal price of 2-2.5 is calculated, the current PTA price should be between 1,300-16,000 yuan/ton, which means "that is, relative to the cotton price, the current price of PTA and Not overestimated."
In his opinion, because the strength of PTA depends on the price of cotton, the market outlook for PTA should also be based on cotton price analysis.
“This is mainly dependent on consumption. After the Spring Festival, the textile market will enter the traditional peak season. The amount of cotton used by textile companies will increase, and companies will have a stronger desire to purchase cotton. It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices this month will be difficult to change. In the medium term, the price of Effective conduction. From the operation of the textile industry in the second half of last year under the high cotton price, we are optimistic about the demand for spring textiles." Quartz peak said.
It is worth noting that a large number of new polyester plants were started in the first half of 2011, but the new production capacity of PTA will not be released until the second half of the year, which will lead to continued tight supply of PTA in the first half of the year. In addition to the lucrative profits of polyester companies in the second half of last year, even if there is a partial inventory, it will not affect the production enthusiasm of polyester companies.
"Therefore, it is expected that PTA prices will remain firm at least in the first half of the year in consideration of the PTA market's consideration of a combination of international oil prices, cotton prices, and the textile market." He Yuexiang said.
At present, the companies related to PTA in the A-share market mainly include S Yihua, S Shang Pei, Zhuhai Port and Rongsheng Petrochemical. However, the impact of PTA price increases on each company varies. Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased the proportion of PTA in its revenue in recent years, so it has benefited more from this round of economic cycle. A manager of Rongsheng Petrochemical stated that “for companies, PTA products are partly exported for their own use, so they can enjoy the benefits of rising PTA prices.â€
The industry believes that the PTA project investment is relatively large, the country has not fully liberalized, and the investment cycle is longer, the fastest to be completed within 3 years, so in the business cycle, generally do not appear blind expansion. If cotton prices remain high, domestic PTA companies will become long-term beneficiaries.