Good policy wants to stop the 2011 car market

Purchase tax concessions, automobile subsidy for the countryside, trade-in subsidies will be cancelled

status quo

18 million! The Chinese auto market will hit a new high in sales in 2010. However, as we all know, in recent years, the high growth of the Chinese auto market in addition to the strong rigid demand of consumers, the stimulation of national policies is another important reason, it is also known as the "policy auto market." However, the purchase of vehicles will be cancelled next year

Information on favorable policies such as tax incentives, car subsidy for the countryside, trade-in subsidies, and so on give people a lot of questions about the Chinese auto market in 2011. The industry believes that the next policy change will affect the direction of the Chinese auto market in 2011.

Benefit from the three major policies 2010 car production and sales will be a new high

At present, the industry generally predicts that the annual production and sales volume in 2010 will reach 18 million, which will surpass the historically highest level of annual sales of the US auto market. This is due to the "three incentives for the automotive industry."

The preferential taxation policy for purchases refers to the “Circular on the Reduction of Acquisition Taxes for Passenger Vehicles with Discharge Capacity of 1.6 L and Below” issued by the State in early 2009 (hereinafter referred to as “Notice for Reduction of Acquisition Taxes”). The initial implementation period is From January 20, 2009 to December 31, 2009, it was stipulated that “purchase vehicle purchase tax at a rate of 5% at a passenger vehicle with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less.” The original tax rate was 10%. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of 1.6L and below displacement models in the overall sales volume of passenger cars in 2009 was 8 percentage points higher than that in 2008, reaching 70%. .

Based on this, at the end of 2009, the State Council decided to extend the implementation deadline for the Notice of Reduction of Acquisition Taxes for another year until the end of 2010, but the tax rate was changed to 7.5%. From the current situation,

The state is not prepared to extend the implementation deadline for the Notice of Reduction of Purchase Tax. “The Notice of Reduction of Purchase Tax will be withdrawn at an appropriate time in early 2011.” The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said in an interview with the media.

In fact, in addition to the “Notice of Reduction of Acquisition Taxes,” the incentive policies that will expire at the end of 2010 include the Implementation Plan for Auto and Motorcycle Going to the Countryside (hereinafter referred to as “Automotive Going to the Countryside”) and the “Means for Implementing Automobile Exchange” ( Hereinafter referred to as "the replacement of cars", these three policies are collectively referred to in the industry as "the three major incentives for the automotive industry."

Benefited from the “three incentives for the automotive industry”, in 2009 China’s auto industry’s overall production and sales exceeded one million in one fell swoop, which was an increase of more than 45% year-on-year. The Chinese auto market has thus surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest automotive consumer market. From January to October 2010, the total production and sales volume of China's auto market reached 14.67 million units, an increase of 35% year-on-year. Currently, the industry generally predicts that the total production and sales volume for 2010 will reach 18 million, which will exceed the annual sales volume of the US auto market. The highest level.

Policy change 1

Cancellation of purchase tax concession will affect the small-displacement auto market next year

Whether it is the madness of the Chinese auto market in 2009 or the steady growth of the auto market in 2010, the industry has generally attributed the continued prosperity of the Chinese auto market to the three major automobile incentive policies, and the Chinese auto market has also adopted the “policy market” argument. Indeed, judging from the effect of the implementation of incentive policies for automobiles, the automobile policy has a huge impact on the auto market.

“The implementation of the three major automobile incentive policies has not only succeeded in stimulating the rapid development of the automotive industry, has driven sales, but has also brought with it transportation and environmental pressure.” An industry source said that stimulating sales is an incentive policy for the past two years. The main task, from the implementation of the situation, this task has been completed, the next step of the policy will certainly turn.

Subsequently, there was news of cancellation of purchase tax incentives. The relevant person in charge of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly indicated that with the gradual increase in the rigid demand and potential for domestic auto consumption, the purchase tax preferential policy will definitely be cancelled next year. This means that in 2011, if consumers purchase a 1.6-liter or lower-displacement vehicle with a price of 100,000 yuan, they will pay at least 2,317 yuan more than the purchase tax in 2010 alone.

From this point of view, after the cancellation of the purchase tax concession, it will surely affect the small-displacement vehicle market. However, how large the impact will be and how long it will last will still have to be tested by the market next year.

Policy changes 2

Policy shift highlights the focus of energy saving and emission reduction

In addition, after the cancellation of the purchase tax concession, where will the subsidy for car subsidies and trade-in subsidies be adopted next year? At present, there is no clear statement about the relevant parties. There have also been different voices in the industry. Some people think that the subsidy for cars to the countryside and the trade-in subsidies were originally introduced as a "supplementary" measure for purchase tax incentives. Since the main incentive measures have been eliminated, subsidy for car subsidy and car replacement subsidies as "supplementary" measures The significance of continuing to implement is also not significant.

Another voice said that the implementation period of the subsidy for cars to the countryside and the trade-in subsidies will be extended for a certain period of time, but the relevant contents should be revised. Take “Vehicle Replacement” as an example, the standards for scrapped vehicles will be improved: The original scrapping standard for “Yellow Labeled Vehicles” is the Euro I emission level, and it is now ready to be upgraded to Euro II. Then, depending on the actual implementation effect, the exit time is selected. .

"Policy reduction is imperative." Others believe that the national policy next year's task will be on energy-saving and emission reduction. Therefore, the incentive policies for the automotive industry will be more reflected in supporting technological upgrading and eliminating backward production capacity. . In an interview with the media, Chen Guangzu, a member of the China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, said that the “Draft Taxation Law for Vehicles and Boats (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)” officially announced by the State on October 28 has gradually shown that the country’s previous consumer-buying policies for the auto market have begun to shift. “The models involving tax increases in the vehicle and boat tax adjustment policies even include some models with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less. These models were previously encouraged to consume. It is clear that the new tax policy for vehicles and boats is to further the focus of energy conservation and emission reduction. Highlighted.

Policy change 3

Traditional policies withdraw from new energy vehicles will usher in high tide

While the traditional car preferential policies will gradually withdraw, some large and medium-sized cities also brewing to introduce more stringent restrictions on car consumption policies. In order to solve the traffic problem, the experts suggested that administrative measures should be used to impose blocking measures on the purchase of cars, and to raise the purchase tax and increase the cost of the first purchase. Industry sources pointed out that the decision to withdraw from the preferential purchase tax policy during the year, and the pressure on transportation in the first-tier and second-tier cities will make the industrial policy no longer relaxed.

As the automobile industry policy continues to shrink, new energy automobile policies will usher in the peak of development. Judging from the policy intentions of the relevant national authorities, the country will guide consumers to purchase hybrid and electric vehicles. In June this year, the “Circular on Launching Private Subsidy for Subsidies for New Energy Vehicles” was released. Pure electric vehicles were identified as the major new energy vehicles in China, and new energy vehicles whose development path meets the conditions were subsidized at 3,000 yuan/kWh. Electric hybrid passenger vehicles have a maximum subsidy of 50,000 yuan for each vehicle, and electric vehicles have a maximum subsidy of 60,000 yuan per vehicle.

Since then, local governments have introduced subsidy policies for the purchase of new energy vehicles. On the basis of state subsidies, local subsidies range from 1 to 20,000 to as many as 30,000 to 40,000. The industry believes that the development path of new energy vehicles can be seen from the subsidy policy. The withdrawal of traditional car incentives can increase consumer enthusiasm for buying new energy vehicles.