Analysis of the causes of the six major tractors' fatigue in the market

First, market demand drifts.

There are many reasons for the downward adjustment of demand for large tractors. Since the implementation of subsidies for agricultural machinery in 2004, the market energy of China-Tongdao has been greatly released. It has experienced double-digit growth for six consecutive years with an average annual growth rate of 26.07%. The annual demand has also soared from 90,300 units in 2004 to last year. Of the 289,000 units, an increase of 3.2 times, especially last year, the peak of demand dragged by large and medium-sized companies. This year, there may be another high consolidation period this year.

Second, the subsidy lags behind dragging down the market.

The subsidy for agricultural machinery in some provinces kicked off in February last year, but some provinces have not started until the end of April this year. Subsidy lag eventually led to a weak boom in the agricultural machinery market in the first four months of the year, and even a weak trend. According to statistics, in the first four months of this year, China's cumulative total of 138,400 tractor subsidies was realized, including medium-sized tractors and walking tractors selling 37,900 units and 105,000 units respectively, a decrease of 74% and 47.47% respectively from the same period of last year. . If the amount of subsidy for the whole year is taken as the benchmark, it can also be found that in April of last year, China’s subsidies for agricultural machinery had already occupied more than 50% of the annual subsidies, of which the medium and large tractors and walking tractors accounted for 55.83% and 56.68%, respectively. This year, it only accounted for 14.51% and 29.77% of the sales for the whole year last year, which was 41.32 percentage points and 26.91 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

The third is that the operating benefits touch the law of diminishing marginal returns, and the rigid demand has decreased.

As China has been dragging the market to a high level in recent years, the number of big drags has soared. Statistics show that as of last year, the number of China’s Dazhong Movers exceeded 3.2 million units. As we all know, the purpose of buying a large consumer is mainly to generate income from operations, and the increase in the amount of holdings directly affects the operating revenue. Market surveys show that at the beginning of this century, the operating revenue of the big towage was quite high, and it took only 3 to 5 years to recover the cost. Now it takes 7 to 10 years to recover. On the other hand, as the price of diesel in China continues to climb in recent years, the operating costs of large-scale operators are increasing, which undoubtedly is a blow to potential consumers.

Fourth, the harvester encountered Waterloo, dragging the market to a chain reaction.

A large part of the reason why Chinese consumers purchase large trailers comes from the combination of harvesters. This year, the sharp decline of the wheat harvesters has produced a chain reaction to the demand for large-scale tractors, which has led to a drop in demand for large-scale tractors.

Fifth, the demand for large and medium-sized dragging is different in the first half of the year.

The history of the tractor market in China has always been a rule, that is, in the first half of the sales to the main drag, the second half of the main drag sales. Because consumers buy tractors in spring mainly for field management, autumn is mainly used for autumn farming and autumn harvest. In recent years, due to subsidy reasons, this law has been broken, and this year's subsidy lags behind, resulting in the recurrence of this law.

Sixth, holding money for purchase, watching the atmosphere is strong.

In the market survey, it was discovered that the market for medium and large-scaled towing in spring this year was heavily subsidized, and it was close to the generalized system. Some areas even had open applications for registration. Consumers gave a cold response, and many consumers who really had demand also held money. purchase. Some distributors reflected that the percentage of people who plan to update this year is higher. Because the original tractor is in use, waiting for one or two months is completely acceptable to these consumers, and it may be possible to wait for a good one. Price, so for the current situation, consumers hold more wait-and-see attitudes and have a strong atmosphere of holding money. First, market demand drifts.

There are many reasons for the downward adjustment of demand for large tractors. Since the implementation of subsidies for agricultural machinery in 2004, the market energy of China-Tongdao has been greatly released. It has experienced double-digit growth for six consecutive years with an average annual growth rate of 26.07%. The annual demand has also soared from 90,300 units in 2004 to last year. Of the 289,000 units, an increase of 3.2 times, especially last year, the peak of demand dragged by large and medium-sized companies. This year, there may be another high consolidation period this year.

Second, the subsidy lags behind dragging down the market.

The subsidy for agricultural machinery in some provinces kicked off in February last year, but some provinces have not started until the end of April this year. Subsidy lag eventually led to a weak boom in the agricultural machinery market in the first four months of the year, and even a weak trend. According to statistics, in the first four months of this year, China's cumulative total of 138,400 tractor subsidies was realized, including medium-sized tractors and walking tractors selling 37,900 units and 105,000 units respectively, a decrease of 74% and 47.47% respectively from the same period of last year. . If the amount of subsidy for the whole year is taken as the benchmark, it can also be found that in April of last year, China’s subsidies for agricultural machinery had already occupied more than 50% of the annual subsidies, of which the medium and large tractors and walking tractors accounted for 55.83% and 56.68%, respectively. This year, it only accounted for 14.51% and 29.77% of the sales for the whole year last year, which was 41.32 percentage points and 26.91 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

The third is that the operating benefits touch the law of diminishing marginal returns, and the rigid demand has decreased.

As China has been dragging the market to a high level in recent years, the number of big drags has soared. Statistics show that as of last year, the number of China’s Dazhong Movers exceeded 3.2 million units. As we all know, the purpose of buying a large consumer is mainly to generate income from operations, and the increase in the amount of holdings directly affects the operating revenue. Market surveys show that at the beginning of this century, the operating revenue of the big towage was quite high, and it took only 3 to 5 years to recover the cost. Now it takes 7 to 10 years to recover. On the other hand, as the price of diesel in China continues to climb in recent years, the operating costs of large-scale operators are increasing, which undoubtedly is a blow to potential consumers.

Fourth, the harvester encountered Waterloo, dragging the market to a chain reaction.

A large part of the reason why Chinese consumers purchase large trailers comes from the combination of harvesters. This year, the sharp decline of the wheat harvesters has produced a chain reaction to the demand for large-scale tractors, which has led to a drop in demand for large-scale tractors.

Fifth, the demand for large and medium-sized dragging is different in the first half of the year.

The history of the tractor market in China has always been a rule, that is, in the first half of the sales to the main drag, the second half of the main drag sales. Because consumers buy tractors in spring mainly for field management, autumn is mainly used for autumn farming and autumn harvest. In recent years, due to subsidy reasons, this law has been broken, and this year's subsidy lags behind, resulting in the recurrence of this law.

Sixth, holding money for purchase, watching the atmosphere is strong.

In the market survey, it was discovered that the market for medium and large-scaled towing in spring this year was heavily subsidized, and it was close to the generalized system. Some areas even had open applications for registration. Consumers gave a cold response, and many consumers who really had demand also held money. purchase. Some distributors reflected that the percentage of people who plan to update this year is higher. Because the original tractor is in use, waiting for one or two months is completely acceptable to these consumers, and it may be possible to wait for a good one. Price, so for the current situation, consumers hold more wait-and-see attitudes and have a strong atmosphere of holding money.