Heavy truck sales credit breaks for crisis or leads to a vicious cycle of the industry
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Recently, a heavy truck company official told the author that he found through the visit to the market that some car owners who paid by installments could not afford a loan. What is more, some dealers have already paid for such users for four months. I reported in the 109th period that the Caofeidian project was postponed in Tangshan, resulting in a sharp drop in demand for heavy trucks, and many vehicle owners stopped or sold their hand to the used car market. In addition, sales of heavy trucks in October for the first time fell below the sales volume for the same period in 2006, and the downward trend in the heavy truck industry seems to be irreversible.
If we say that sluggish sales of heavy trucks are the result and the appearance, then the above-mentioned heavy truck outages and owners' failure to provide loans are the reasons. After tracing the source, the financial crisis has affected China's economic development. If this crisis is further aggravated, the collapse of heavy truck dominoes will be inevitable.
In recent years, the proportion of users' loans for buying cars has increased. In the good situation of the heavy-duty truck industry in the past two years, many group users have accelerated the renewal of vehicles, and a large number of retail investors have joined the industry. Among these users, those who can buy a car in full amount are after all a minority, and the heavy credit business also develops rapidly. In some big dealers, the proportion of users who buy loans for a car can reach 60% or even higher.
When the economic situation is good, users have sources of goods, and monthly repayments are basically not a problem. Once the economic situation deteriorates, users of loans to buy cars do not have a way to make money. Loans of a few thousand dollars or even tens of thousands of yuan each month become a heavy burden on owners. Unless they use previous savings, they will be unable to repay loans. This will trigger a series of chain reactions.
The first is that dealers have to take up this part of the risk. Some powerful dealers can negotiate with banks and financial companies to temporarily delay the repayment of some customers, or to advance some of the funds. The weaker dealers face enormous risks of capital chain fracture. This part of the business may become bad debts, bad debts, and eventually become bad assets. With the increase in non-performing assets, there will be a group of "unstoppable" dealers will be eliminated first.
The second is business. If the distributor falls, it means that the heavy truck companies have to spend a lot of manpower and material resources to rebuild the marketing network, and they are facing the risk of increased inventory, increased accounts receivable, and unrecoverable production equipment and personnel input. Ultimately, the strength of the company is greatly weakened. May even lead to bankruptcy.
How to avoid domino falling?
First, cash is king. Judging from the current situation, the global economic downturn is difficult to avoid. Domestic enterprises must prepare for the “winter†money and must not blindly engage in mergers and acquisitions. The three largest auto giants in the United States are the best examples. There are reports that the “big three†is on the verge of bankruptcy. The underlying reason is that excessive expansion has caused cash flow problems. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the credit market in the US basically stagnated, exacerbating the "big three" cash flow problem and ultimately it was difficult to sustain.
Secondly, reduce production and change resources. Demand determines supply. When demand is insufficient and it is difficult to pull, supply will need to be adjusted in time to avoid more pressure on stocks and the risks will increase. In addition, some companies often require dealers to purchase more goods in order to seize the market when the market conditions are good. If this practice is adopted when the market is bleak, it will indirectly transfer the risk to dealers. Ultimately, the enterprise will still be harmed. . Therefore, how to grasp this degree requires careful consideration. It avoids the need to force dealers to press the goods in order to achieve the goal of impulse and accomplishment, and also avoids situations in which companies and distributors cannot meet the demand when the market picks up.
Third, to strengthen the internal management of enterprises, and strive to reduce costs, who can control the cost to a lower level, who will be able to get through this "winter."
Finally, we must be prepared for ideas and strengthen market research and product development. Once the economy recovers, mining coal mines start, and major engineering projects are gradually implemented. At this time, whoever prepares more fully, whoever is expected to seize the opportunity when the market recovers.