When Will Metal Prices Drop and Lead Times Stabilize?

Throughout 2021, the metal market has experienced a dramatic rise in prices for steel, stainless steel, copper, and other common base metals. These fluctuations have created challenges for manufacturers and businesses alike. However, ESI has adapted to these changes, developing sustainable and cost-effective solutions that help our customers navigate through volatile markets. Our long-term experience with various metals has given us unique insights into how price swings impact overall business costs.

price of metal drop

Why Are Metal Prices Rising?

A recent article from the New York Times highlighted that prices for steel, stainless steel, aluminum, and copper are at record highs. There are three main factors driving this increase during the post-pandemic recovery:

1. Tariffs and Reshoring Efforts

The U.S. has implemented tariffs on imported materials, which has pushed up prices. Companies are now shifting production back to the U.S., leading to consolidation in the industry. For example, aluminum importers face supply shortages from Canada, while demand for copper and nickel is surging due to the growth of energy storage and electric vehicles. This shift also presents an opportunity to create thousands of jobs in the American economy.

This trend accelerated when the pandemic hit in 2020, and even though some shipping costs have risen, many of these tariffs remain in place, further increasing material costs.

2. Transportation Disruptions

Supply chain issues have worsened since the start of the pandemic, causing raw material shortages as companies ramp up production. Freight shipping costs are now at an all-time high, with China’s top 10 ports reporting an average 126% increase in D&D charges. The problem isn’t just overseas—truck driver shortages, exacerbated by the pandemic and increased e-commerce, have led to longer lead times and what some call “shipping Armageddon.”

truck driver shortage

3. Global Supply Constraints

These trends have created a situation where demand for materials exceeds supply, making it difficult to provide accurate pricing and lead times for manufacturing projects.

As industries continue to adapt to these supply chain challenges and ramp up production, metal prices are expected to stay high. With a growing focus on clean technology and infrastructure development in both the U.S. and China, we’re seeing a perfect storm of rising demand and limited supply.

Which Metals Are Most Affected?

While supply shortages and high demand are impacting nearly all metal markets, the most commonly used industrial metals are experiencing the greatest price increases. Manufacturers should expect higher costs for steel, aluminum, copper, and nickel.

  • Steel & Stainless: Consolidation and reshoring of steel operations, along with reduced scrap availability, are pushing up production costs.
  • Aluminum: Canada, a major supplier of aluminum to the U.S., has imposed export quotas. Demand far outstrips supply, resulting in higher prices.
  • Copper: Essential for electronics and EVs, copper prices remain high due to supply constraints and increased demand across multiple sectors.

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How to Select the Right Material for Your Stamped Metal Part: Learn more here

When Will Prices Drop?

Although metal prices are expected to eventually decline as the global economy recovers, they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels soon. The market may remain tight through 2022, especially with large-scale infrastructure projects in the U.S. and China continuing to drive demand.

The pandemic has also caused delays in shipping, leading to longer lead times for certain materials. Given the current tight supply, we recommend planning for several extra months when scheduling production in 2022.

Stay Competitive with Cost-Efficient Metal Products from ESI

Due to sourcing uncertainties and supply chain delays, project timelines have been affected. Understanding how your choice of metal impacts both cost and turnaround time is crucial for effective planning. At ESI, we're here to help you make informed decisions.

To stay ahead, ESI is proactively securing materials for future projects. Over the past 30 years, our strong relationships with metal suppliers have kept us informed about market trends. We can offer alternative design or material suggestions that may reduce costs or improve delivery speed without compromising performance.

No matter what the market looks like, our team works hard to keep pricing competitive for our customers. We closely monitor metal costs and trends to ensure your project is completed efficiently and affordably. Contact us today to learn more about our metal products and services!

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