Asian additive market matures and challenges
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Kline & Co. said that the consumption of finished lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region is almost equal to the sum of the rest of the world, so this market is crucial for lubricant additive suppliers, but the barriers to entry are extremely high.
At the UEIL conference in Malta last month, Milind Phadke, the director of the US consulting firm, highlighted some of the points in the upcoming global lubricant additives market report.
Phadke pointed out that while global demand for finished lubricants, especially in Asia, has grown significantly, demand has also been rapidly changing as key demand drivers have changed. He said that additive blend oil producers must “deeply understand the market demand and the needs of OEM manufacturersâ€. They must be well aware of the evolving engine technology and current emission control policies, and have expertise in all commercially available additive components. In addition, they must be able to test formulations and market them.
“The barriers to entry in this market are very high, so the world is mainly four companies, Lubrizol, Infineum, Afton Chemical and ChevronOronite.†He continued, “With the emergence of some suppliers in China and other parts of Asia, this situation is changing , but it turns out that it's hard for them to get into this market."
However, he continues to say that the demand for additives that meet the market in the coming years will surely be rewarded. In 2014, the Asia Pacific region accounted for as much as 45% of global demand for finished lubricants. By 2019, the Asia Pacific market will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 1.9% per annum, which is almost twice the global growth rate, and only 3% lower than the combined growth rate in Africa and the Middle East.
Phadke said that global additive consumption is usually closely following the pace of finished lubricants. However, in the aftermath of the global economic recession, the annual growth rate of additives has started to overtake finished lubricants.
In 2014, about 11% of the world's 39.4 million tons of finished lubricants were volume-based. By 2019, the global demand for lubricants will reach a growth rate of 1.2%, while the growth rate of additives will reach 1.6%.
Kline believes that the global demand for higher quality lubricants has led to this phenomenon. Lubricant formulators' products need to be compatible with a new series of emission control devices and fuels that are more efficient and less polluting, while also extending oil drain intervals and using them under harsher conditions.
He said that the global market is undergoing a change, and the rate of change in different regions is fast or slow, but it is certain that all regions will be transformed, whether it be API Class I, Class II or Class III or synthetic base oils. Changes will increase the quality of finished lubricants. However, formulators also hope to meet these more stringent requirements through higher additive processing rates and using different combinations of additives than before.
In the small passenger vehicle oil market, this means more reliance on friction modifiers and antioxidants because in the top 15 global markets, the share of lower viscosity products (such as 5W) will jump from 30% in 2009 to 40% in 2024.
For heavy oil, the demand for antioxidants, corrosion inhibitors and viscosity index improvers will increase significantly, and the compound annual growth rate will exceed that of the finished lubricants market by about 1.5%.
The metalworking fluid and general industrial oil markets require stricter health, safety and environmental regulations, new machinery technologies, and plant and other bio-based materials.
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