ACT Research recently unveiled its latest decarbonization forecast, titled *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*. This comprehensive report integrates anticipated progress in zero-emission technologies, focusing on battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as alternative decarbonization methods.
According to Ann Rundle, ACT's Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy, "Battery-electric vehicles appear to be a strong contender for achieving decarbonization targets across different commercial vehicle applications and weight classes." She elaborated, "While we anticipate some deployment of FCEVs and continued use of NG trucks, these will likely be confined to specific niches with much slower adoption rates compared to BEVs."
ACT Research predicts a notable rise in total Class 8 tractor sales in 2026 due to the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. Regarding the BEV outlook, Rundle noted, "Adoption rates will remain modest in 2025 and 2026 since the commercial BEV market is still nascent. Challenges on the supply side, such as infrastructure limitations, will keep growth somewhat restrained, but this trend should shift post-2027."
Lydia Vieth, an ACT Research Analyst specializing in electrification and autonomy, added, "Medium-duty applications currently lead the way for BEV adoption. However, California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is accelerating BEV adoption in Class 8, particularly for tractors, throughout the rest of the decade. By the early 2030s, favorable total cost of ownership (TCO) will become the main driver for BEV adoption in heavier GVW categories."
Vieth also pointed out that FCEV truck volumes will stay relatively low between 2025 and 2029 due to their higher TCO compared to diesel, NG, and BEV options. "Higher costs and limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure will constrain FCEV adoption primarily to fleets operating in areas with accessible H2 stations," she explained.
Rundle concluded, "Our short-term NG forecast indicates stable unit sales, unaffected by overall Class 8 truck volume fluctuations."
ACT Research offers two forecasting solutions: the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the enhanced *OUTLOOK Plus*. These reports provide a detailed view of the North American commercial vehicle and transportation sector, predicting Classes 4-8 vehicles and commercial trailers. They assist industry stakeholders in planning, budgeting, and executing go-to-market strategies while leveraging third-party insights for strategic decision-making. The reports delve into key demand drivers such as regulations and consumer preferences, analyzing current market activities and highlighting unit forecasts across trailers, medium-duty, and heavy-duty segments, including powertrain breakdowns (diesel, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and natural gas).
The North American CV forecast examines the trucking industry, presenting a snapshot of commercial vehicle demand along with tactical and strategic market analyses extending five years into the future. Its aim is to equip original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, investors, and other market participants with critical insights in a historically volatile market. The report provides an extensive overview of North American markets, exploring relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking metrics, orders, and backlogs. It includes build and retail sales forecasts, current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, North American macroeconomics, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is widely acknowledged as the premier provider of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Major North American truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, banks, and investment firms rely on ACT's analytical services. ACT Research contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received prestigious recognitions, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have been honored with distinctions such as the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium’s Best Overall Forecast, the Wall Street Journal’s Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today’s Top 10 Economic Forecasters. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.
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