Coping with informationization and changing the power industry transformation

This article summarizes the six new trends of global informationization, systematically explores the nine new features, five new trends and two new laws of the electronic information industry. On this basis, the authors put forward seven strategic new measures for the transformation and upgrading of China's informationization. It is an important inspiration for China's power industry to recognize the new situation, formulate new strategies, and launch new initiatives.
Looking at the world today, information resources are exploding, information technology is advancing by leaps and bounds, the information industry is growing rapidly, and the wave of informationization is raging. It is rushing into the sea and infiltrating into all aspects of human society, becoming the trend of world economic and social development. Become a strategic choice for countries around the world.
The so-called informationization is to extensively study and apply modern information technology in the fields of economy, science and technology and society, effectively develop and utilize information resources, steadily build advanced information infrastructure, vigorously develop the information industry, continuously improve comprehensive strength and competitiveness, and accelerate the modernization. the process of. In short, informatization relies on information technology, information resources and the information industry to accelerate the process of building a modern state.
The degree of informatization has become an important symbol of comprehensive national strength and has become the focus of competition in the world in the 21st century. Promoting informatization construction is conducive to strengthening international economic and technological cooperation, and is conducive to the wider development and utilization of information resources, which will play an invaluable role in improving the living standards and quality of life of people all over the world. However, due to the limitations of the country's economic strength and technological level, countries have different purposes in promoting the process of information construction. Western developed countries take advantage of their capital, information technology and international network resources, and hope to continue to maintain a leading position by achieving high informationization, expanding market demand, stimulating economic growth. Developing countries hope to expand their information technology and information industry by expanding their information technology and information industry, improve the level of informatization, narrow the gap with developed countries, and take advantage of late-stage development to achieve leap-forward development. From the current development situation, the degree of informatization directly determines the degree of economic development. Due to the gap in the degree of informatization between developed and developing countries, the gap between the rich and the poor in the north and the south continues to increase.
Humans have entered the agricultural society for thousands of years. After entering the industrial society for hundreds of years, it has only been in the information society for only a few decades. Although we as a developing country, compared with developed countries, there is a certain gap in the degree of informatization. However, due to the short time of entering the information society, we have not formed an insurmountable information gap, as long as we clearly understand the development trend of informationization and To develop the law, formulate a scientific and feasible information strategy, and effectively adapt to the new changes in informationization, we will be able to seize opportunities, make breakthroughs, achieve leapfrogging, and then come to the top. Facing the new situation, China's power industry should respond calmly, strive to seize new opportunities, adopt new countermeasures, and achieve new rise.
I. New Trends in Informatization (I) Informatization is accelerating economic globalization. It provides a low-cost, all-round tool for the exchange and use of information resources. The popularization of information technology represented by network technology enables people to overcome the limitations of time and space, quickly and inexpensively acquire and update world-wide information, thereby reducing inventory and logistics costs; the rise of e-commerce enables enterprises to realize through network Close communication with customers, global marketing, and impact on traditional market management methods and the way the society operates economically; through the network, resources distributed in different regions are organized efficiently, thus expanding the form of organizational structure. The virtual manufacturing and virtual design have been developed; the network has also promoted the flow of productivity factors around the world and became the technical foundation of economic globalization. The so-called economic globalization refers to the process of high openness of various countries and the integration of the international market into a common market. It is a new system of international economic relations. Although economic globalization has begun since the Second World War, progress has been very slow. Only in the 1990s with the rise of the Internet and the development of information technology, economic globalization has entered the stage of acceleration. It can be said that economic globalization is the inevitable result of economic informationization. The rapid development of international economic activities and the trend of economic globalization have further expanded the demand for international information exchange and promoted the development of information networks. The trend of economic globalization and informatization interdependence and mutual promotion is increasingly evident. Under this megatrend, mastering the ability to access information, process information, exchange information, and use information on a large scale has become the core of a country, a region, and a company's competitiveness. The impact of informatization on the economy has a transformative effect and is driving the economy to a new model and entering a new phase.
(II) Informatization brings mankind into the new economic era In the 1990s, the US economy showed a rapid development of super-cycle in the past decade, while the inflation rate and unemployment rate remained at the lowest level in history, breaking the traditional economic theory. The argument that “growth rate, unemployment rate, and inflation rate cannot achieve the best at the same time”. The new economic phenomenon shows that informatization has brought about tremendous changes in the economy, and a new economic era is coming. This new economy has many names: information economy, network economy, knowledge economy, digital economy, etc. It is based on information and knowledge, and uses information networks as tools to develop in various fields such as production, exchange, and consumption. A new way of social material production activities. The new economy is a new economic form different from the industrial economy. It is the product of the continuous development and continuous integration of information technology, high technology and economy, and is a symbol of the development of social productive forces to a certain level.
The cause of the rise of the new economy is informationization, and its technical basis is the development of information technology, especially network technology. The widespread use of the Internet in social and economic life activities will bring profound changes to all areas of economic life:
1. From the perspective of economic structure, networking has contributed to global economic integration. National borders and information and transportation costs are no longer able to distinguish between markets and protect markets. The globalization of the market has contributed to the globalization of capital and technology flows.
2. From the perspective of economic operation mode, networkization promotes direct economic development from indirect economy to socialization. From the direct economic development of face-to-face transactions between producers and consumers in the agricultural era to the indirect economy of the industrial era relying on intermediaries to expand the market, while the Internet and e-commerce will reduce the indirect economic market costs and provide direct access to producers and consumers around the world. The opportunity to communicate makes the indirect economy develop into a direct social economy.
3. From the perspective of economic theory, from the traditional economic theory that emphasizes capital accumulation to the new economic theory that emphasizes human resources and innovation, from the law of increasing marginal cost of economy to the law of diminishing marginal cost.
4. From the perspective of social consumption structure, the increase in income brings about social diversification and individualization of consumption, prompting the production mode of enterprises to shift from mass production to mass customization, from economies of scale to normative economy.
5. From the perspective of resource structure, information and knowledge have become important resources for economic development, and talents with innovative capabilities have become the first resource. Constant innovation is the essential feature of the new economy. "Removing your own products" is the survival rule of the new economic era. Enterprise management is mainly innovative management, and innovation has become the main source of corporate wealth. Innovative talent has become the country's valuable first resource and strategic resource.
6. From the perspective of productivity structure, among the three elements of laborers, labor materials and labor objects, the role of talents as the primary productive force and science and technology as advanced productive forces has become increasingly prominent.
7. From the perspective of technical structure, from single technology to composite technology. New products have been difficult to rely on the research and development of a company, and various forms of enterprise alliance will gradually occupy a dominant position, which will lead the enterprise relationship from "competition" to "competition."
8. From the perspective of the organizational structure of the enterprise, gradually move from the hierarchical structure of the pyramid to the flat structure. Information instead of authority, coordination to replace orders, creating a work environment and corporate culture that effectively motivate employees will be the biggest challenge.
9. From the perspective of property rights structure, intellectual property rights become the first property rights. In the new economy, intangible intellectual property is far more important than tangible material property rights. At present, intellectual property rights have four trends: (1) intellectual property dominance; (2) intellectual property personalization; (3) intellectual property capitalization; and (4) intellectual property marketization.
(III) Informatization promotes the integration and internationalization of e-government With the completion of the establishment of the national backbone network of e-government and the acceleration of the interconnection of local e-government intranets, a nationwide unified e-government network has taken shape. The trend of outsourcing construction of e-government extranets is also more obvious. The government website is an important way for government information to be disclosed and to transform service functions. The Regulations on the Openness of Government Information of the People's Republic of China promulgated on April 5, 2007 has legally guaranteed the content construction of government websites. With the further acceleration of the reform of the administrative system and the profound transformation of the government's governance philosophy, the types of online applications will be more colorful and the models will be more humane. In the future, the government information published on the government website will be richer and more comprehensive, and more and more affairs will be handled quickly and easily on the Internet. At the same time, more people in the central and western regions will enjoy e-government services similar to those in developed coastal areas.
The construction of the 2008 Science and Technology Olympics, Green Olympics and Humanistic Olympics further improved the level of e-government informatization in China. The government promised 3G commercial services covering several Olympic cities, urban management, emergency services, food safety, and the Olympic Games. The reliance on communications systems and other work for information systems has never been seen before. For the Olympic-related cities, the capabilities and levels of e-government applications and services have been “connected” with the international community and have been well received by countries around the world.
(IV) Comprehensive promotion of informationization to rural areas, cities, families and society 1. All parties have made efforts to comprehensively promote rural informationization in China, and have shifted from partial pilots to overall and comprehensive advancement. At the experience exchange meeting of the rural informatization comprehensive service pilot held at the end of 2007, the leaders of the Ministry of Information Industry, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Culture were tightly held together. Regardless of the cooperation between the cultural information resource sharing project and the rural informatization comprehensive information service project, or the combination of information caravans and technology mobile services to the countryside, more and more farmers are making comprehensive promotion and comprehensive services from this informationization. Direct benefit.
2. The concept of broadband cities, digital homes, and information citizens is booming. Focusing on improving the competitiveness of the country in the future, Japan, South Korea and other countries will also incorporate it into the national development strategy. Some localities have also begun to cooperate with telecom operators to push "fiber to the home", build broadband communities, and lead digital homes to enhance regional informationization and rebuild regional competitiveness. The digital home has thus become a new development direction for the industry.
3. The process of social informationization has accelerated. The launch of the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating Community Informatization", which spans more than 10 departments such as civil affairs and social security, will greatly promote the process of community information construction in China. In addition, there will be significant progress in the key areas of medical and health informationization such as electronic medical records, health records, regional medical care, and hospital informationization.
4. Comprehensive promotion not only reflects the communication and coordination between government departments, but also more deeply reflects the cooperation and interaction between government forces and market forces. For those informatization fields where the market's spontaneous demand is still thin and the subject consciousness is still vague but strategic, it has an important role in cultivating the market, inciting the market, and occupying the commanding heights of the information society. The value of informatization will not only be reflected in the economy, but will also be fully reflected in improving the quality of people's lives and helping to build a harmonious society.
(V) Increase in the efficiency of enterprise informationization In recent years, China's large enterprise informationization has made significant progress. The integrated management information system has developed into a global and integrated application stage, and the Group's management and control capabilities have been enhanced. The Central Enterprise Informatization Work Conference further proposed that by 2010 most of the central enterprises' information infrastructure, core business application information systems and integrated management information systems will reach or approach the world's advanced level in the same industry. A prominent highlight of the enterprise information construction in 2008 was the small and medium-sized enterprises. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Information Industry and the Information Office of the State Council jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Informationization of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Under the guidance and promotion of relevant policies and measures, The third-party information platform that the majority of SMEs serve is facing more strong market demand.
The status of CIO has been greatly improved in recent years. Because the CIO is no longer a mere director of the information center, more and more senior managers - the deputy director of the company as the corporate CIO, and the State Council SASAC has written this request into the relevant documents. Informatization will be more concerned by the top management of the enterprise, and will begin to become the number one project. The language of enterprise informationization is also shifting from technical language and business language to a more strategic language--profit.
The biggest challenge of enterprise informationization in the future is that the value of the application must be clear and precise, so that the most important application entities in the market, small and medium-sized enterprises, can be introduced into the door of informationization. Informatization integrated service providers should spend more energy to study the survival and development dependence of SMEs, and measure the minimum utility and comprehensive value of information application from the analysis of the bottleneck factors of their business development. For example, in the face of providing information services to large agricultural enterprises, it is necessary to integrate weather, seeds, agricultural technology and cost accounting information into information and content that customers are really interested in. As a sign of this service model, more projects will be charged according to the effect in the future. The benefits of service providers will be closely tied to the benefits of enterprises, emphasizing the practicality of technology and hoping to bring customers with less investment. Larger return.
(VI) Transnationalization of the e-commerce market 1. E-commerce is in the market and the prospects are attractive. In 2007, e-commerce achieved a major theoretical breakthrough, and the state gave it a new definition, namely, networked new economic activities. E-commerce therefore has a broader space for development. It can be said that the scale of the network is large, and the market space for e-commerce will be large. Taking advantage of the Olympics in China, 2008 is a year of significant progress in China's logistics industry and e-commerce. Experts pointed out that after the enlightenment of previous years, e-commerce has entered a stage of rapid growth, and it can be said that the golden development period of e-commerce has arrived. The flow of venture capital, the direction of entrepreneurship, and opportunities for future listings will all be concentrated on e-commerce.
2. The rapid development of tourism e-commerce. Authoritative information experts said that 2008 is the Olympic year, and a large number of transnational tourism resources have begun to enter China. At the same time, with the expansion of Schengen in 2008, a large number of domestic tourists will be more convenient to travel abroad in the future. E-commerce will show an innovative development trend characterized by the display of tourism resources. Websites displaying mobile resources and mobile electronic guides will develop rapidly. A large international e-commerce market is taking shape.
3. SME e-commerce and agricultural e-commerce will present a diversified and rapid development trend. The launch of the SMEs' informationization promotion project has raised new demands for modern logistics. At present, there are 40 million rural netizens and about 20,000 agricultural websites. In particular, the adjustment of agricultural structure and the development of high-efficiency ecological agriculture have brought new changes to the information service methods and needs of Chinese farmers. Huge potential logistics needs.
4. Mobile e-commerce development has entered the fast lane. By the end of 2008, the number of mobile terminals worldwide was 4 billion, and the number of mobile terminals in China was 1 billion, accounting for a quarter of the world. The number of mobile Internet users worldwide is 600 million, and the number of mobile Internet users in China is 120 million, accounting for one-fifth of the world. In particular, there are innovations in the form and operation mode of value chain, and the four modes of application-driven, service-follow-up, technology-guided and resource-spreading have increased new logistics requirements.
Second, the new pattern of information industry (1) The proportion of the output value of the information industry in GDP has increased globally. The electronic information industry not only has a rapid growth in total volume, but also because of its high technical content, high added value, low pollution and great potential. The other sectors of the national economy and social development have used tie-making actions. Therefore, developed countries and emerging developing countries have been eager to invest in the development of their own electronic information industry.
At present, in industrialized countries, information is generally regarded as an important resource for the development of social productive forces and national economic development. The information industry is regarded as the core and emerging industrial cluster of all industries, and is called the fourth industry.
The electronic information industry mainly includes seven aspects: first, the production and sales of various microelectronic products, electronic components and electronic whole machines; second, the development, research and development of various computers and terminal devices and their supporting software and hardware. Sales; the third is the electronic information materials industry; the fourth is the information service industry, including information data, retrieval, inquiry, business consulting; the fifth is the communications industry, including network communications, satellite communications, telegraph, telephone, mobile phones, postal, etc.; Information technology related to various manufacturing industries; seventh, entertainment programs and library information as a mass media.
Since the 1990s, the electronic information industry, which is dominated by the communications, computer and software industries, has become the most important strategic industry in the world with its amazing growth rate. It has developed rapidly in the fierce economic and technological competition and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of various industries, and its growth rate has remained basically between 6% and 10%, averaging twice the world GDP growth rate during the same period. According to statistics from international authorities, the world's total output value reached US$49.88 trillion in 2007, up 4.1% year-on-year; in 2008, it reached US$5.173 trillion, up 3.7% year-on-year; it is expected to reach US$52.86 trillion in 2009, up 2.2% year-on-year. In 2007, the total output value of the world's electronic information industry reached US$4.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, accounting for 9.3% of the world's total output value, ranking first in all industries; in 2008, it reached US$4.96 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, accounting for the world's total output value. 9.6%, further strengthen the leading position; expected to reach 5.15 trillion US dollars in 2009, an increase of 6.6%, accounting for 9.7% of the world's total output value.
According to the statistics of domestic authorities, the total output value of China in 2007 was 24.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, accounting for 7.1% of the world's total output value. After the United States, Japan, and Germany, it ranked fourth in the world; in 2008, it reached 300,700. 100 million yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, accounting for 8.5% of the world's total output value, surpassing Germany, ranking third in the world; expected to reach 32.63 trillion yuan in 2009, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, accounting for 9.0% of the world's total output value, is expected to surpass Japan , ranking second in the world. In 2007, the total output value of China's electronic information industry was 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, accounting for 17.2% of the world's total output value of the electronic information industry. After ranking in the United States, it ranked second in the world, accounting for 22.7% of the country's total output value. The top of various domestic industries; in 2008, the total output value of China's electronic information industry reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, accounting for 18.5% of the world's total output value of the electronic information industry, surpassing the United States, ranking first in the world (2008 countries and regions in the world) The top 10 output values ​​of the products are China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Mexico and Brazil, accounting for 21.0% of the country's total output value, further strengthening the status of the boss; The total output value of the information industry reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, accounting for 21.0% of the world's total output value of the electronic information industry, accounting for 22.7% of the country's total output value.
At present, the electronic information industry has become a key factor in economic growth and social development in the world and in many countries, and its added value in GDP has been increasing. With the development of high-tech and national information infrastructure and global informatization construction, the electronic information industry, as the leading industry of the high-tech industry group, will maintain rapid growth in the new century of the new economic era.
(II) New features of the information industry attract people's attention 1. The formation of a new industrial division of labor system The industrial division of labor has been further refined and began to shift to the division of labor. The role of the industrial chain and product processes is becoming increasingly apparent, and the industry shifts from echelon transfer to direct investment. For example, due to the development of SMT technology, the original machine board did not do the work, began to invest in research and development, and increased the assembly and sales of new models.
2. The role of technology, brand, capital, scale and market share. Increasing the internationalization of markets, capital and technology makes international competition shift from competition of resources and products to competition of technology, brand, capital and market share. Core technologies and brands become The key to competition. The impact of technological advances on the market is growing, and product updates are changing with each passing day, injecting new vitality into the rapid growth of the electronic market. Due to the rapid development of technology and fierce competition in the market, the difficulty and risk of technology development are increasing, and the funds and high-tech talents are being invested more and more. Therefore, joint research and development of multinational corporations has emerged.
The profit of the electronic information industry mainly depends on core technology, intellectual property, independent brands and production scale. For example, in 2003, the total sales of the semiconductor industry in China was only 20 billion yuan, and the profit was only 3%. The sales of the multinational giant Inteer Company exceeded 230 billion yuan, and its profit was as high as 18%. As far as the whole machine manufacturer is concerned, Galanz, the largest microwave oven in China, relies on OEM (OEM), and its own revenue is only 3%-5%.
3. The dominant position of multinational corporations At present, there are tens of thousands of multinational corporations in the world, but there are only a few thousand influential in various industries, mainly based on the world's top 500. The mergers of these multinational companies in the electronic information industry have swept the world, and the trend of leading the competition has become a fixed trend. For example, the total output value of the electronic information industry in the world in 2004 was 1.4 trillion US dollars, and the sales of the top 40 electronic companies in the world. The amount reached 1 trillion US dollars, accounting for 71.4% of the entire industry. The multinational companies that play a leading role in various fields of the global electronic information industry mainly include the following companies:
Computer field: IBM, HP, Dell Electronic audio and video fields: Sony, Panasonic, Philips, Sanyo Communications: Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson IC field: Intel Software: Microsoft, EDS
4. Spatial agglomeration effect enhancement The economies of scale and technology spillovers have led to a high concentration of industries in terms of spatial distribution. The electronic information industry base and industrial park based on the industrial chain have become the basic pattern of the world. Many industrial bases have been formed in accordance with the industrial chain. In the past, multinational companies liked Singapore and Malaysia and are now gathering in China.
5, flexible manufacturing technology is emerging With the advancement of technology and the improvement of living standards, consumer personalization has gradually become a trend, people's demand for electronic products is increasingly diverse, which is also an important feature of the new economic era. In order to adapt to the market demand of diversification, small batch size and large total volume, flexible production technology has been rapidly developed, so that many products that meet the requirements of different consumer groups have emerged as the times require, which conforms to the new situation of personalized consumption.
6. Electronics and communication are in the transition period of key technologies Digitalization, networking and intelligence have become mainstream. Digital TV, third-generation mobile communication and next-generation Internet, these information network systems and technologies that have a great impact on future development are becoming more and more mature, and become the focus of future network construction and business development. In the field of communication, digital technology is completely replacing analog technology; in the field of radio and television, it has begun to change from analog TV to digital TV; digital TV broadcasting has been piloted in many countries around the world; digital audio broadcasting has also entered the stage of commercialization.
7. The role of the core industry is increasingly important Software, integrated circuits, new components, electronic materials and special equipment are the core industries of the electronic information industry. Its strength level is the key to determining the strength of a country's electronic products. Developed countries such as the United States and Japan dominate the electronic information products manufacturing industry because they master and monopolize the design and production of core software and key infrastructure components. The United States has monopolized the core microprocessor system chip technology; Japan has an advantage in semiconductor memory, electronic production equipment, as well as flat panel displays, hard drives, and printers.
8. Product boundaries and industry boundaries are becoming increasingly blurred Digital technology has promoted the integration of audio, video, communications and computer products. Cross-operation, resource sharing and mutual penetration of telecommunication networks, television networks and computer networks are the general trend. Due to the problems of our national management system, the telecommunication network, television network and computer network are currently separated from each other. The combination of electronic technology and machinery, automotive, energy, transportation, construction, textile, metallurgical and other industries has spawned new technological fields and broader industry categories. Computers, mobile phones, and fax machines have entered the family in large numbers, blurring the boundaries between consumer and investment products. The development of information technology such as digital multimedia has promoted the convergence of PCs and TVs, and the emergence of information appliances that integrate home TVs, computers, and communication terminals.
9. Product localization, production and sales form a climate In order to develop the international market, international multinational companies are vigorously promoting localization strategies, establishing their own production bases in developing countries and regions through sole proprietorship and cooperation, and expecting a bigger market. Share.
(III) New Trends in the Information Industry The internal development of the electronic information industry determines its basic characteristics and development status. In turn, these basic characteristics and development status have a profound impact on industrial development, forming a new trend of industrial development. . In the new century, the electronic information industry will present the following new development trends in key technologies, market demand, international division of labor, production scale and enterprise model, competitive core and competitive fields.
1. Key technology development trends (1) The trend of microelectronics technology development towards system integration: System integration is the focus of microelectronics technology development in the early 21st century. Under the dual role of demand traction and technology promotion, an integrated system or system integrated chip (SOC) has been developed that integrates the entire system on one or several chips. It is now possible to integrate 108-109 transistors on a single chip. System integration is a revolution in the field of microelectronics design.
In the next ten years, integrated circuits will continue to use silicon-based CMOS circuits as the mainstream process. The main development trend is the miniaturization of processing and the large diameter of silicon wafers.
(2) The trend of computer technology to multimedia and intelligent development: computer technology includes network computing technology, mobile computing technology, parallel computing technology, PC, server and its external device design and development technology, multimedia technology and artificial intelligence technology.
Parallel processing technology will grow rapidly, and computer performance will increase by an order of magnitude every two years. Multimedia technology will integrate computers, communications, and home appliances. Intelligent technologies such as language and handwriting recognition, digital image interaction, etc. will develop rapidly.
(3) The trend of network technology to multi-service, high-performance, and large-capacity: network technology includes network communication technology, network security technology and network service technology. The IP business will explode, and the broadband integrated service digital network and ultra-high-speed Internet will become the focus of future network technology development. The optical communication network technology that greatly reduces the network transmission cost, provides unlimited bandwidth to users, and realizes real-time communication of network multimedia will achieve great development.
(4) The trend of communication technology in the direction of broadband, personalization and integration: communication technologies include satellite, optical fiber transmission technology, mobile communication technology, digital microwave technology, wired and wireless access technologies.
Low-orbit satellite communication has been put into practical use; fiber transmission technology has doubled the transmission speed every 3-4 months, and the communication service for transmitting moving pictures has been realized; mobile communication technology has developed rapidly, and the international standard of the third generation mobile communication system has been launched. The third generation of mobile phones has been introduced; the digital microwave communication system has been fully switched to the synchronous digital series (SDH) by the standard synchronous digital series (PDH); the broadband access technology has developed rapidly, and the access bandwidth of the optical fiber backbone website has exceeded the G level, and the Internet wireless Access technology and Bluetooth technology are becoming more and more mature; packet switching, DWDM optical transmission, IP routing and Web applications have become the four major factors that must be considered in the next generation of broadband networks. ATM technology will be combined with IP technology to complement each other.
(5) The trend of software technology development towards network, intelligent, and wireless interconnection technology: software reuse and software component technology as the development direction of future software development will cause profound changes in the software industry. Distributed computing, network and Internet-related software technologies, Linux and free software will be the main hotspots in the software arena. Software wireless interconnect technology is maturing and will begin to enter large-scale commercial applications.
(6) The trend of display technology in the direction of large screen and flat panel: new cathode ray tube (CRT), liquid crystal (TFT-LCD), plasma (PDP), light emitting diode (LED), organic electroluminescent device (OELD), etc. New display devices are becoming a global emerging industry.
(7) The trend of electronic whole machine design in the direction of miniaturization, light weight, portability, aesthetics and intelligence: beautiful and practical, easy to learn and use, light and portable, full-featured and humanized, it is the electronic in the new century. The general pursuit of the whole machine.
(8) The development of electronic components to miniaturization, chip, integration, flame retardant, high-frequency, low-power, high-performance development: In order to adapt to the new development of electronic machines, electronic components must Continuous innovation and improvement. With the breakthrough of microelectronics technology, new components will continue to emerge, and chip systems that are processed and integrated at the nano level will gradually become mainstream products.
(9) The trend of development of electronic materials to high quality, low cost, lead-free, non-toxic, recycling, and nanometerization: In order to meet the requirements of high performance and low cost of electronic components, new electronic materials must be of high quality and low price. Non-toxic and environmentally friendly.
2. Trends in market demand changes (1) Trends in the size of the electronic market as the economy rises and falls: Looking back at the history of the development of the electronic information industry, it is not difficult to find that the global market for electronic information products is often subject to economic development, and its growth rate is often high. The global GDP growth rate. With the rapid development of the global economy in the new century, the spring of the development of the electronic information industry has arrived.
(2) The trend of market distribution spreading to the Asia-Pacific region: Currently, in more than 200 countries and regions around the world, there are more than 50 countries and regions with certain electronic information industry capabilities, including the production and sales of electronic information products in the United States and Japan. The amount exceeds half of the world's total. The import of electronic information products in the United States is greater than that of exports. The export of electronic information products in Japan is greater than that of imports. It is worth noting that the production and sales of electronic information products in Asia and Latin America are developing at a high speed, with an increasing proportion, and exports are more than imported, and their status in the world is constantly increasing.
(3) Trends in the market dominated by investment products represented by computers and communication products: After decades of development, the structure of electronic information products in the world has become more rational, and the production scale of investment electronic information products has gradually expanded. The production scale of electronic information products has gradually decreased, and the production scale of component electronic information products has remained stable. With the rapid development of network technology and information technology, the production scale of computer and communication products will account for a larger proportion of the production scale of electronic information products, and its annual growth rate is higher than the average annual growth rate of the entire electronic information products. .
3. Trends in industrial international division of labor (1) Trends in the division of industrial division of labor and the division of labor content: The division of labor gradually changes from one country to the continent and globally; the division of labor gradually shifts from the division of labor based on traditional production factors to modern technology. The technology-based division of labor changes from the division of labor between the various sectors of the industry to the division of labor within the department, from the division of labor based on large professional categories to the division of fine professional division.
(2) Trends in the formation mechanism of industrial division of labor: The mechanism for the formation of industrial division of labor is determined by the market from a voluntary decision to the scope of business of a multinational company and by the part of the regional industrial group. There has been a phenomenon in which industrial agreements have a division of labor between multinational companies and within regional industrial groups on an international scale.
(3) The horizontal division of labor has become the main form of industrial division of labor: the division of labor includes the division of products, the division of products and parts, the division of labor of product processes, and the formation of a worldwide industrial division of labor, each production link They have become part of the world's production system and become a link in the commodity value chain.
(4) The trend of vertical division of industrial division of labor: developed countries such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany rely on the advantages of their capital, technology, brand and talents, mainly engaged in system integration and development and sales of high-tech products, leading the global electronics信息产业发展的格局,处于价值链中技术密集型的高端;发展中国家只能以其廉价的劳动力为基础,利用传统的技术,大量生产技术含量较低的一般化产品,处于价值链中劳动密集型的低端;韩国、新加坡、和我国的台湾地区正开始进入以生产技术为主,处于价值链中技术与劳动兼具型的中端。目前来看,我国大陆仅处于价值链中的中低端,且以低端为主。
4、产品生产规模化、企业模式网络化趋势 (1)产品生产规模化趋势:电子信息产品大部分具有显著的规模经济效益,达不到一定生产规模,产品则很难在市场竞争中立足。目前,产品的生产规模越来越大,跨国公司彩电年产量一般在400万台以上,个人计算机和通信产品年产量规模普遍在500万台(万线)以上,彩管产量300万只以上,片式电阻的月产量甚至达到100亿只以上,国外主要片式钽电容器生产厂年产量均在15亿只以上。因此,电子信息产业进入门槛越来越高,没有巨额的资金投入,很难形成真正有竞争力的产品。
(2)企业模式网络化趋势:全球信息化和信息网络化趋势也使电子信息产业传统发展模式面临严峻挑战。信息资源的开发利用至关重要,人才的核心作用更加突出,中小科技企业在开发创新中的灵活性和重要作用日益明显,技术创新和知识创新对产业发展的影响越来越大。鉴于此因,以信息网络为基础,借助各种关键信息资源促进发展的新型企业模式开始崭露头角,并已显示出强大的生命力。
5、竞争核心技术化、竞争领域集中化趋势 (1)竞争核心技术化趋势:持续的技术创新不仅能够保证企业获得超额利润,尤其是关键技术或关键产品的技术创新更能为企业树立行业领袖地位。因此,电子信息产业领域的竞争核心集中在关键技术的创新和垄断上。
(2)竞争领域集中化趋势:电子信息技术竞争的主要领域集中在软件、集成电路和新型元器件。软件是电子信息产品的核心,而集成电路、新型元器件则是电子信息产品制造业的基础,并具有较高的附加值。美国、日本在电子信息产品制造业的霸主地位源于掌握并垄断着这些领域的产品开发与生产技术。韩国以及我国台湾为提高其竞争力,也在大力发展关键元器件。印度、爱尔兰和以色列则在软件开发生产方面形成了独特的竞争优势。
(四)信息业新规律主导经济发展 在当今新经济时代,电子信息产业已成为我国乃至全球第一大产业,是国家经济和世界经济的支柱,电子信息技术正在各行各业广泛渗透,引领和带动着其他行业跨越式前进,深刻影响和改变着全球经济走向、技术水平、文明程度和社会面貌。而电子元件产业作为电子信息产业的基础,电子元件技术作为电子信息技术的关键,电子元件创新水平作为各种电子信息产品创新水平的标志,电子元件创新能力作为电子信息产业创新能力乃至国家自主创新能力的灵魂,电子元件创新作为新经济腾飞的动力,其战略带动作用日益凸显。由此可知,深刻揭示和科学利用电子信息产业创新发展的规律,对于有力推进电子信息产业科学发展,加快建设创新型国家,无疑具有十分重要的现实意义和异常深远的历史意义。
回顾电子信息产业的发展历程,通过深入研究分析,我们可以发现,世界电子信息产业正在逐步呈现出“逐级递增”和“辐射联动”两大创新发展规律。
1 逐级递增规律 电子信息产业发展的“逐级递增规律”表明,电子元器件技术的每一次创新突破,不仅使电子元器件产业本身产生一次跨越式发展,而且推动直接利用新型电子元器件的电子整机更新换代,使这些直接相关的电子整机产业实现更大的发展,进而带动国家经济与世界经济走向繁荣。
比如集成电路技术的创新,使计算机从电子管计算机、晶体管计算机、集成电路计算机、大规模集成电路计算机、超大规模集成电路计算机、光计算机发展到生物智能计算机,使收录机从电子管收音机、留声机、晶体管收音机、磁带录音机、随身听、MP3、MP4发展到MP5,使空调器从制冷空调器、冷热空调器、交流变频空调器发展到直流变频空调器,使洗衣机从单缸洗衣机、双缸洗衣机发展到全自动洗衣机,使录象机从磁带录象机、VCD、超级VCD、DVD、逐行扫描DVD发展到光盘录象机,使照相机由胶片照相机发展到数码照相机和数码照相摄象机。由于片式电子元件技术的创新,使手机从模拟式手机、数字式手机发展到第三代多媒体手机。由于电光元件技术的创新,使电灯从白炽灯、日光灯、节能灯发展到LED(发光二极管)。由于电热元件技术的创新,使电炉从电子炉、电烤箱、电磁炉、微波炉发展到光波微波炉。由于显示器技术的创新,使电视机从黑白电视机、彩色电视机、平面直角电视机、超平电视机、纯平电视机、逐行扫描电视机、逐点扫描电视机、背投电视机、PDP(等离子)电视机发展到LCD(液晶)电视机。总之,随着电子元器件技术的不断创新,直接利用电子元器件新技术的电子新产品象开闸的潮水一样奔涌而来,从而大大拓展了市场需求,带动了经济持续增长。

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